Is Neoprobe One to Watch?

Written on July 15, 2008 – 4:50 am | by raiiden |

by Joe J.

NEOP has been publicly traded for 23 years. It has 50% market share in gamma probes, geiger counters that detect cancer during surgeries, so doctors can remove all the cancerous tissue. That’s the “razor”. It’s profitable, except for R&D expenses to develop the “razor blade”. Once you sell the razor, you make a killing selling razor blades for recurring revenues and earnings.

The razor blade is Lymphoseek, a compound that finds the sentinel lymph node during breast cancer surgery, so the doctors can learn if the cancer has spread. This rapidly growing procedure is much less invasive and less costly than removing 20 nodes, or axillary surgery, which removes the side of the breast and the gland under the armpit.

Currently, there is no drug approved to find the sentinel node, so a colloid compound, blue dye, is used off-label, and it’s not reimbursable, so hospitals eat $900 each surgery. Lymphoseek will be first-in-class drug, approvable, and only stays in the body 24 hours, vs. several days for the current drug. It was 99.5% accurate in Phase II trials, and is well into Phase III, which will be completed in 2008. Interim results are expected this quarter, which should really move the stock. Total market potential is $225M/year.

The Company will go from $7M in annual revenues to estimated $50M in 2010, and like all biotechs, the stock will move strongly in anticipation. 70% gross margins, a per-dose fee, and a 5 year contract locked up with the biggest oncology drug distributor in the U.S., Cardinal Health.

NEOP outsources sales, marketing, and distribution, so net profits will be super. Earnings will soar. With spectacular results in Phase II trials, and zero safety issues, there is a very high likelihood Lymphoseek will get approved, with sales starting in Q4-2009. The stock hit a high of $23 in 1996 when it was completing Phase III trials for RIGS, a drug which detects cancer during colorectal surgeries, but wasn’t approved.

Now RIGS is back in gear, due to start new Phase III trials in 2009, with a market potential of $2.5 Billion! Anticipation of it should drive the stock well over $5 and re-listing.


Exit

Written on June 11, 2008 – 3:31 pm | by Genesis |

exiting all positions. Exited ATMl and CNP two days ago (Monday), sorry I did not update.


Re-Entry Point: BUY BUY BUY BUY

Written on June 5, 2008 – 12:23 pm | by Genesis |

From a technical standpoint, it’s time to BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY. BUY SPY, QQQQ, CNP, ATML, ETFC!!! Something is about to happen today and it should be good!

I will post charts up later. SP500 is at a 61.8% retracement point! And there is some important trendline support.

CNP bounced off of horizontal support. Let’s get our hands dirty and dive in traders, investors! Whoo whoooo!!!

For some reason, I can’t post the charts up, but they are signaling to buy the SP500 and Nasdaq. I added more to ATML.


QQQQ, SPY, CNP, ATML

Written on May 23, 2008 – 2:12 am | by Genesis |

While I am solemnizing over the financials, I am picking myself up also because the equity markets index prices have bottoms and are looking good in our favor.

While we sold out of the financial secot filled PEY a couple of days ago, we are still in AT&T from last year (LOL), SPY, QQQQ, DIA, and our new additions and re-entries last months and this month are CNP and ATML. CNP in the Utilities sector, which is doing very well and even outperforming the S&P500, and so is the Technology sector of which ATML is apart of. There were also recent insider buys in the CNP stock in march.

CNP’s stock is experiencing a monthly entry from the powerful CCI system I have come to favor because of its simplicity and accuracy. Also, CNP has bounce off for the 4th time off of its weekly support trendline. That same line was also the back of another support line. It made a gartley pattern and all of this merged together at the 78.8% fib. support line.

We are looking at the downward trendline as a point of reference to watch for signs to exit at $16.98; however, given the monthly signal and weekly bounce, I have set my main target first at $18.68, which is above the downward trendline (would be a break out) and at a horizontal resistance line. I cannot make any commentary beyond that except to say, “Let’s wait until we get there to see what we should do;” that is, on a weekly basis. Now, on a monthly basis, all I can say is that it looks like it will break above its 52 week high if we break above $16.98, given our monthly CCI signals.


The Financials and the Rest

Written on May 20, 2008 – 5:51 pm | by Genesis |

I sold out of PEY, I was beating that the financials will fare well; however, they are now expected to fall another 40% in earnings. Theya re holding up techincally well, but PEY continues to spiral down. I continue holding onto the advancement of SPY and CNP and others I mentioned before.


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